Will South Korea Get Nuclear Weapons?
Will South Korea Get Nuclear Weapons?
The President of the Republic of Korea offers provocative views.
Yoon Suk-yeol, President of the Republic of Korea
South Korean President Yoon has made several statements on the topic of the potential for his country to obtain and deploy nuclear weapons, only to have the comments walked back shortly afterward. After his interview with AP, his office subsequently stated: “President Yoon stated the idea in principle that North Korea nuclear threat should be addressed in a strict manner. There is no change to the principle that we abide by the NPT [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty]. In order to effectively deter North Korea threats, our government has been focusing on strengthening of South Korea - U.S. extended deterrence.”
Here is what we think is really going on.
What is the bottom line? It is unclear if he simply misspoke or, as US officials privately conjecture Yoon is deliberately overstating ongoing bilateral discussions in order to force the U.S. to be more accommodating to the Republic of Korea’s (ROK) requests for bi-lateral cooperation.
So what is really the government’s position? ROK officials provide differing views ranging from no intention to pursue indigenous nuclearization or reintroduction of US tactical nuclear weapons removed in the early 1990s to a more conditional stance of non-advocacy for either option for now, dependent on future North Korean provocations or progress in bilateral discussions with the United States.
In any case, Yoon’s comments complicate delicate discussions on the degree to which the US will loosen its previously adamant rejection against bilateral nuclear-sharing or nuclear planning. Korea watchers in the US had embraced Yoon’s inauguration last May, seeing near total alignment on security and foreign policies. A bilateral tabletop exercise with nuclear scenarios will take place next month.
What’s Next? If not handled well, this issue has the potential for causing tension in the bilateral alliance and relationship at a time when the two countries, along with other allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region need to be working closely together to address the growing Chinese and North Korean threats. Further complicating this is China's effort to expand its nuclear capability and its intent to reach strategic parity with the U.S. and Russia. This development will raise new concerns about the efficacy of U.S. extended deterrence. It will remain a strategic imperative that the U.S. sustain a strong strategic deterrent force as well as rebuilding more robust missile defense capability. This must be matched with an adequate conventional deterrent which will require both U.S. and allied capability in both Europe and Asia. Robust burden sharing in both theaters as well as increasing defense industrial capacity are critical to sustained deterrence.
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