Will Russia Shoot Down U.S. Satellites?

Putin might take his war against Ukraine into outer space.

Nov 4, 2022

(National Space and Intelligence Center image)

So what are the odds Putin’s war against Ukraine could become Star Wars? Last week Russian officials raised the possibility that Moscow may target commercial satellites providing support to Ukraine as legitimate targets for a retaliatory strikes.

Konstantin Vorontsov, deputy head of Russia’s delegation at a UN arms control panel, said the use of Western satellites to help Ukrainian forces on the battlefield was “an extremely dangerous trend,” adding “quasi-civilian infrastructure may be a legitimate target for a retaliatory strike.”

Deputy Head of the Russian Delegation Mr. Konstantin Vorontsov

So we asked some experts on military matters and space activities if this threat is credible. Here is what we got back.

Is attacking civilian satellites in space legal? There are few international treaties that govern these types of operations in space. The Outer Space Treaty does not govern this area. The Law of Armed Conflict, which is not a law per se (but rather a collection of treaty agreements and commonly held customs which govern conduct by nations in war) provides the only real context by which to evaluate this threat. The principles of military necessity, distinction, and proportionality are germane in this area.

The principle of “military necessity” authorizes the use of force to accomplish a legitimate military mission. If a commercial satellite or network of satellites is indeed providing direct support to Ukraine’s military efforts, the Russians could argue that under this principle, it can target the satellite(s) to accomplish its military mission. This would be an extraordinary claim and one that would be controversial. Such an attack has no precedent.

The principles of distinction requires combatants to distinguish between combatants and non-combatants, while the principle of proportionality is the concept that the anticipated loss of life and damage to property incidental to attacks must not be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage expected to be gained.

It is conceivable that Russia could make an argument that an attack on a commercial satellite providing direct satellite communications or imagery in support of Ukraine could meet these requirements.

How Practical is Such a Threat to Strike a Commercial Satellite? Because it is possible Russia could craft such a legal basis for an attack, does not mean such an attack could be feasible.

It would be challenging for Russia to have an appreciable kinetic impact on these satellites. The Starlink communications satellites are the size of shoeboxes, and there are thousands of them. The commercial imaging satellites, e.g. Maxar, are bigger, plentiful, and replaceable.

The Russians possess the Nudol anti-satellite missile with which they killed their own defunct Kosmos 1408 satellite, but it would be like using an expensive sledgehammer to kill a mosquito if used against one of these commercial satellites.

There may be non-kinetic options using cyber and electronic warfare attacks. For example, Russia targeted Viasat’s KA-SAT broadband geostationary satellite with cyberattacks which impacted coverage in Ukraine and several other European countries at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Viasat serves as a defense contractor for the United States, as well as other nations including Ukraine.

Adversaries continue to refine capabilities to use lasers and other technologies to jam satellite signals using directed energy weapons including lasers and microwaves beamed from the ground or from neighboring satellites in addition to cyberattacks on ground stations that can severely damage reliability and consistent capabilities. Starlink, the satellite internet constellation operated by SpaceX, earlier in the conflict noted Russian attempts to jam its satellites, and they had “reprioritized to cyber defense & overcoming signal jamming” and that some terminals near conflict zones had been seeing hours of Internet blocking while a software update provided by the company would assist in bypassing jamming attempts.

How Would the U.S. Respond? It is unclear how the U.S. would respond to such an attack. U.S. Space Command is tasked in the Unified Command Plan to “protect and defend U.S., and as directed, allied, partner, and critical commercial space operational capabilities.” There are notable responses including directed energy weapons that could potentially be implemented. Todd Harrison, formerly of the think tank CSIS, has said a directed energy weapons have “the advantage of protecting satellites without producing space debris, which is important to the long-term viability of the space domain for all users, not just the U.S. military.”

In the event of such a Russian attack on a commercial satellite, it is likely the Administration would apply the policy in space that it has used for proposals like a no-fly zone or the provision of Army Tactical Missile System missiles missile in the Ukraine conflict and be very circumspect and low key in any response. The Administration would likely rely on a proportional low-profile cyber-attack and electronic warfare to disable a Russian satellite, if they respond at all.

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Will Russia Shoot Down U.S. Satellites?

Putin might take his war against Ukraine into outer space.

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