Will China Invade Taiwan?
Taiwan president announces new defense policy.
This is a story we have written on before.
We also reported on recent elections in Taiwan.
There have been some other interesting recent developments.
What’s new? Taiwan President Tsai announced in the end of 2022 that Taiwan is going to extend its compulsory military service from currently four months to one year to help build combat capacity.
What’s the bottom line here? Welcome development, and long overdue. Taiwan has learned an important lesson from Ukraine, demonstrating a capacity for self-defense, is a strong incentive for international cooperation and support for the defense of your own territory. The more Taiwan credibly enhances its self-defense the more likely it is to attract international support from the U.S. and others. The U.S. appreciates strong demonstrations of burden sharing.
What do we think? The change back to one year won’t start until 2024. That said, what is even more important is that Tsai also said the quality of the training will be improved immediately. Improving the quality of training is vital.
Another key indicator of the seriousness will be if the government reduces exemptions under their “alternative service” scheme. This was a problem even before the service period was decreased to four months. Taiwan should learn from South Korea. There’s a huge difference between South Korean men, who must spend at least 18 months in real military service, with very few exceptions.
Qualitative improvement in ground forces and civil defense would complicate China’s strategic thinking making Taiwan infinitely harder to not just conquer but occupy. Anything that increases conventional deterrence and reduces the potential for a quick and easy campaign lowers the potential for conflict.
The latest announcement comes in tandem with renewed US commitments to Taiwan in the NDAA. Many analysts attribute the recent spate of Chinese overflights as a response to the NDAA.
What’s Next? Deterrence against Chinese aggression will be based on what others “do” not what they “say.” The Chinese will be watching closely, and complaining about, implementation of Taiwanese reforms and U.S. and other allies promises of engagement and support. It is crucial, however, that Taiwan and its friends follow through—that is mostly likely to serve as a more credible deterrent.
Equally important is that the U.S. continues to strength its naval and regional capabilities. This effort must come through growing capability. Over 70 percent of the US Navy is already in the Pacific—so there really can’t be a pivot. The Navy is already there. What the U.S. cannot afford is to see the strategic balance shift dramatically over time, that requires a robust naval building program and a sustainable theater capability. That matched with Taiwanese resolve is the best way to reduce tension in the theater.
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