Taiwan, War, and More

The hot question in Washington, D.C., and much of the world, is will Beijing battle for Taiwan? This is an issue with an answer.

When the Communists chased Chiang Kai-shek and the Nationalists out of China in 1949, defeated Chaing decamped for Taiwan where he served as the leader of the Republic of China (ROC) from 1928 to until his death in 1975. Today, ROC still remains independent from control by Communist China.

What’s the future of Taiwan? Free state or Beijing suburb?

Let’s be honest-lost opportunity for the U.S. not making a stronger statement over Speaker Pelosi’s recent stop-off at Taiwan.

China, on the other hand, ran wild, including massive military drills and missile firings that must have killed every poor fish in the Taiwan Strait.

The dust-up in the Far East triggered endless rounds of speculation over when Xi might pull a Putin and try to seize the island by force of arms. One analysis, for example, argues that an invasion would tank the Chinese economy. Others claim Beijing will make its move before the end of Biden’s term.

So what really gives?

Let’s not waste space and get right to it. We went to “the” expert, Dean Cheng.

Experts can dispute who is the world’s foremost expert on what the Chinese Communist Party is up to. If their is not “Dean Cheng,” they are wrong.

So I asked Dean for his take. He was as blunt as usual.

Here is the real deal.

Will China invade Taiwan? What’s the time-frame? 1-2 years, almost certainly not. 5-7 years? Unclear. 10 years? Anybody’s guess?

[Note: Think about that answer, because if the invision is not timed to happen in the next New York minute, then all sides get a vote on how the competition over the island’s independence plays out in the years ahead. Choices made now could be decisive. For example, if the U.S. and Taiwan want to scare China off, for starters, Washington and Taipei need to agree on what Taiwan needs to defend Taiwan.]

Can Taiwan win? Without ANY US support? Probably not. (Not sure how Japan would do, for that matter.) Hold the Chinese off the beaches for the first few days? Quite possibly. Long enough for the U.S. to come to the rescue? At this point, probably, but it’s declining.

[Note: If the U.S., for instance, wants to be able block an invasion, America is going to need more navy.]

Will the U.S. fight for Taiwan? Depends on the POTUS. Hard to say with Biden. Definitely with Trump. Almost as definite with DeSantis and most other Republicans. Harris can’t find Taiwan. AOC might cut a deal with Beijing. (You reduce carbon emissions. You get Taiwan.)

(Note: Biden has said America will help defend Taiwan. Still, we have our own questions about Biden’s leadership chops.]

Should Americans care about Taiwan? Yes. For strategic, technology, and competition reasons.

[Note: Take a look at the map below. This shows the most important reason the U.S. will continue to support Taiwan. If China controls Taiwan, it will dominate the “first island chain,” and pretty much control access to and air and sea movement across Asia. Do you really want a country that wants a world without America to hold that kind of power?]