Taiwan National Elections Grab Global Attention
Taiwan National Elections Grab Global Attention
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) got hammered in local races.
This time around, PresidentTsai Ing-wen’s party took a beating.
Generally aligned with expectations (based on pre-election polling) and similar to the results of the last local elections in 2018, the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party won big in Taiwan’s local elections on November 26. They came out on top of 13 of the 21 city mayor/county governor elections. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) only won 5. Following the polls, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen resigned as leader of the DPP. She remains president of Taiwan, though, with her second and final term ending in early 2024.
We asked Asia expert Michael Cunningham to give us a run down on the results. Here is his take.
What the heck happened? The main takeaway here is that the KMT remains a powerful force in Taiwan politics despite the DPP’s strong influence among younger voters and continued dominance in its traditional stronghold of southern Taiwan. The local polls (which include elections for city mayors, county governors, and city/county councils) are decided largely on local issues. While they are often characterized as Taiwan’s equivalent of “mid-term elections,” due to their occurring just over a year before the presidential and parliamentary elections, the KMT’s blowout victory four years ago had no bearing on the general election in 2020, which Tsai and the DPP won in a landslide (the DPP’s rebound in 2020 was partly due to Tsai’s ability to capitalize on Beijing’s high-profile crackdown on Hong Kong’s protesters and the erosion of “one country two systems”).
What’s your takeaway? Elections in Taiwan are competitive, with just under half of the population supporting the KMT, just under half supporting the DPP, and a smaller group of swing voters deciding the difference. Tsai attempted to cast these local elections through the lens of Chinese aggression towards the island in order to energize the DPP’s base, but she was not successful. This was likely because the local offices up for election had little to do with China policy.
As in the U.S. and other democratic countries, Taiwan’s voters are mostly concerned about domestic policy issues, and this is especially true of local elections. Taiwanese society is divided on contentious issues, such as energy policy, public health (particularly the government’s response to COVID-19), and social issues such as LGBT+ rights. The KMT is the conservative party, with the DPP taking more “progressive” positions.
As for China policy, the vast majority of Taiwanese citizens favor preserving the status-quo, with only a small percentage of voters favoring unification with China or a formal declaration of independence. Both parties aim to preserve the status-quo, but they have different approaches to dealing with China. The KMT favors reducing tensions through bilateral inter-party (KMT-CCP) talks based on Beijing’s “one China principle” and the DPP, given its nominal pro-independence stance, can only engage China on a country-to-country basis, which Beijing will not accept.
What’s Next? With the local elections behind us, all eyes now turn to Taiwan’s presidential and legislative election in early 2024. The candidates for that election have not yet been chosen. Currently, the field is wide open for candidates of all political parties, as Tsai is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. Provided the KMT’s position on China significantly harden ahead of that election, a KMT victory would likely give Beijing an opportunity to dial down tensions following the new president’s inauguration in May 2024.
A DPP victory would most likely result in a continuation of the cross-Strait tensions experienced under Tsai’s presidency. One potential candidate considered a DPP frontrunner, current Vice President Lai Ching-te, is an open proponent of Taiwan independence. Beijing would likely respond to his election by pushing tensions to even higher levels (a story we have reported on before). Either scenario will require the U.S. to continue supporting Taiwan and provide the U.S. with opportunities to do so.
What is critical for Americans to understand is that both seek to strengthen their military and appeal to the U.S. to help ensure Taiwan’s security. Americans should also respect the incredible resilience and dynamism of Taiwanese democracy.
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