Political Chaos in Peru

The Peruvian president is out, but the chaos continues. UPDATED 12/14/2022

Dec 8, 2022

José Pedro Castillo Terrone at his swearing in ceremony, served as president of Peru from July 2021 to December 7, 2022 when he was removed by the Congress.

Update 12/14/22

We feel the responsible thing to do is update our stories as they evolve. As we suspect, significant violence erupted in the wake of Castillo’s ouster. See article in the New York Times (requires access).

Reports of widespread rioting in Lima including burning a hotel and overturning buses.

We deeply suspect the leftist violence is being fueled by social media accounts originating from Caracas, Havana, Moscow, Beijing and all the leftist leaders in Latin America.

According to one source, so far “the main accounts amplifying the disinformation and ‘racism’ false narrative [are] Evo Morales (Bolivia), Cristina Kirchner (Argentina), Gustavo Petro (Colombia), and AMLO (Mexico)…..Suspect the critical node that connects the disinformation campaign from Spanish to English is where Russia will come in….One of the most active pro-Russia disinformation actors in Latin America is Daniel Estulin. He works through a social media network that often bridges between Spanish and English and by extension connects Latin American disinformation to Europe and the U.S.”

“The disinformation campaign appears to be focused on activating the most radical pro-Castillo sectors across the country and its working,” argues Mateo Haydar, “Castillo came out earlier this week on social media asserting that he is still president, that he is effectively kidnapped, and that the current president is a ‘usurper.’ AMLO and the usual suspects in the region are backing him publicly, issuing a joint statement with Argentina, Bolivia, and Colombia, saying he will offer asylum if he needs it, and freezing relations with Peru 'temporarily', essentially legitimizing Castillo in his coup attempt.”

The current president Dina Boluarte has called elections, but not soon enough, for Spring 2024. There are many concerns with her and the possibility that she too might pursue a constitutional assembly. But this would be all but certain with Castillo, and his supporters don't want compromise, they want her out. With the military and Congress behind Boluarte on this, things may wind down in several weeks, but they've laid the seeds to radicalize the left and exacerbate conflict come 2024.

The U.S. administration’s response so far has been feckless. By not strongly condemning Castillo and registering strong disapproval with AMLO and others, Castillo will become the next Lula, a corrupt politician that reemerges as a destabilizing force while the rest of the Western Hemisphere just watches. Our current U.S. policies are neither standing up for democracy or America’s interest. We are just watching while conditions for Iran, Russia, Cuba, China, and Venezuela to stir up trouble in the neighborhood improve.

Original Post

Peruvian President Pedro Castillo of the Maoist “Free Peru” Party was impeached by Congress and subsequently arrested, after announcing on national television this morning that he would dissolve Congress, launch an “emergency government” with rule by decree, and call elections in the next year for a new Congress to draft a new constitution. Vice President Dina Boluarte, also of the Free Party, was sworn in as president.

Asked analyst Mateo Haydar for an update.

What happened? Castillo’s failed coup came as Congress was preparing a third impeachment attempt for corruption charges.

While, the constitution allows the President to dissolve Congress if the latter rejects repeated votes of confidence under certain conditions, but these had not been met, making Castillo’s attempt grossly unconstitutional.

Castillo’s failed attack on democracy was soundly rejected by members of his inner circle, including resignations from the majority of the cabinet, the Peruvian armed forces and the national police, and a broad majority in Congress with only 6 members voting against impeachment and 10 abstentions.

Peruvians also rapidly mobilized to block the way to the Mexican embassy as Castillo attempted to flee there.

The U.S. Embassy in Peru and the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs both made statements condemning Castillo's actions, but [U.S.] Secretary [of State Anthony] Blinken and the White House have remained silent.

The president of Mexico made statements in support of Castillo.

What’s Next? The new President Dina Boluarte has also been accused of corruption and comes from Castillo’s far left party, while seen as more moderate than her predecessor. Boluarte made a statement this morning rejecting Castillo’s actions, but Castillo’s future is uncertain as he remains under custody.

Despite the resilience of Peru’s institutions, today’s events should alarm the region as other more competent neighboring leaders move to politicize their militaries and push constitutional changes that only benefit the radical left.

The regional left has already mobilized to defend Castillo, including statements from the Argentine and Bolivian governments in the OAS [Organization of American States].

Expect a massive social media campaign engineered out of Caracas to try to destabilize the country.

The U.S. government ought to be leaping in with massive engagement in support of democracy, the administration so far has been fairly inert.

What’s the bottom line? This remains a nation at grave risk. Peruvians stopped a failed coup d’etat. Still, the fact is Peru has now had six presidents in four years, making this highly unstable times. Meanwhile, China's strategic interests in Peru, including a major port and mining, should not be overlooked.

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Political Chaos in Peru

The Peruvian president is out, but the chaos continues. UPDATED 12/14/2022

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