A few months ago, Georgia Meloni was derided as a fascist after her election as Italy’s prime minister. Those attacks, however, largely fell flat. Meloni seems to have quickly weathered libels against her party, mostly because the government is clearly not extremist, the narrative completely flopped in Italy, and the story has quickly faded in most foreign press as well. Meanwhile, Meloni has emerged as an important figure in European politics, heading the ECR wing of the European Parliament.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni
Meanwhile, Meloni just completed a successful overseas diplomatic trip and her controversial domestic budget just won approval. Both actions reflect the proactive efforts of the new government at home and abroad.
We just spent a few days in Rome, meeting with a lot of folks. Here is what we found.
For starters, what is the bottom line? This looks to be one of the most stable and activist Italian governments in some time with implications for European and Transatlantic affairs. Unlike previous coalition governments which cobbled together diverse parties to form a majority, this government is a solid coalition of the center-right (Brothers of Italy, Forza Italia and Lega). There is even some discussion of uniting the parties into a national conservative party (unlikely). Meanwhile the opposition is weak.
What’s the government up to? Meloni has a strong mandate to lead. Top priority is promoting post-Covid economic growth. Another important domestic issue is migration. The government is also looking at a range of initiatives from healthcare reform to family policy. That said, the fiscal challenges, dealing with high national debt and inflation are daunting.
The government would like to tackle judicial reform and government organization to strengthen Italy's national institutions. These are very difficult for which there is not even a consensus for action on the right. Expect modest efforts.
On foreign policy, Meloni has been decisive, in some areas more so than the parties or the majority of Italians. She is pro-NATO, pro-US, tough on China, tough on Russia and pro-Ukraine. The government’s foreign policy priorities focus on the Mediterranean region especially the Balkans and North Africa.
Meloni also wants to to develop Italy as a European energy hub drawing on diverse energy sources from North Africa, the Middle East, US, caucuses and Central Asia, seeing gas and oil as part of the long-term energy mix.
What's Next? A few key items to watch for to see if Meloni can leverage her current popularity and influence into a sustainable force both at home and abroad.
With an ambitious domestic agenda at home and overseas, track the pace and sequence of initiatives and how she rounds out her inner team of advisors and leaders.
There are European Parliamentary elections in 2024, possibly conservatives could achieve a majority with an alliance of EPP and ECR with Meloni emerging as major player.
Finally, there is a lot of common interests between the U.S. and Italy in the Mediterranean region from the Balkans to North Africa. Watch to see if the government can leverage that to emerge as a more valued and influential U.S. partner, which would also elevate Meloni's stature in Europe.
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