"It is balloon!"

Chinese surveillance craft over U.S. territory grabs the world's attention.

Feb 3

The Department of Defense acknowledged overflight of a high-altitude Chinese surveillance balloon.

The appearance of Chinese surveillance balloon over U.S. territory has garnered wide-spread media attention. We reached out to a bunch of our experts and here is what it all boils down to.

What’s all the fuss? This is as much a political issue for the U.S. administration as a security issue. The initial response from the U.S. government downplayed the incident. By mid-morning, however, the administration shifted with Secretary of State Blinken cancelling or postponing a planned trip to Beijing.

This incident shows the serious limitations of Biden’s effort to stabilize relations with China, cooperate on climate policy, and exercise a “compete where we must, but cooperate where we can” approach to the Beijing regime as was practiced by the Obama administration (which is also favored by several European allies).

What’s it all mean? The Pentagon acknowledged it has been tracking a Chinese spy balloon in U.S. airspace. Further, spokespersons revealed this is not the first incident. Apparently, there was one over Hawaii last year (that hadn’t been formally attributed to China), off coast of Kauai where Barking Sands Missile range is and where we test interceptors and new radar systems for MDA and Navy ships along with the submarine school test range. There were reports of one over Guam. Reportedly there is another one over western Canada.

China asserts the balloon is a civilian weather tracking aircraft that went off course. Our assessment is that that is not credible.

Further, our assessment is that the action is illegal.

Here is a good technical summary.

What’s Next? Regardless of the actual threat the overflight poses, China acts with intentionality and it is important to understand both the intention of the actions and China’s muted diplomatic, and mendacious, public response.

Of late, China has shed the aggressive, “wolf warrior” diplomacy that was its fashion of late. It is clear, Beijing thinks it can manipulate the U.S. administration with selective engagement.

The White House faces a serious challenge with Americans and many allies increasingly skeptical of China and Biden's impulse to temper relations with Beijing.

Biden’s approach is not sustainable. U.S. policy is increasingly likely to treat China as a clear adversary. Expect the efforts of the House oversight committee on China to only increase attention on China threats. The administration risks trailing Americans and some critical allies in addressing China’s destabilizing and threatening actions.

War and More

"It is balloon!"

Chinese surveillance craft over U.S. territory grabs the world's attention.

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