Is America's Military in Decline?

An authoritative report raises some troubling questions. UPDATED 11/7/2022

The annual report of military strength from The Heritage Foundation concludes the armed forces are headed in the wrong direction.

Update

Wanted to share the short video from the Wall Street Journal editorial board on the serious decline in U.S. military capability.

Here is the coverage from Fox News.

Here is a podcast from the Daily Signal.

Index editor Dakota Wood has some sharp words for the Pentagon when officials criticized the finds of the report in a recent article, he wrote:

According to Politico, an anonymous defense official claims Pentagon leaders are “none too pleased” that The Heritage Foundation’s latest Index of U.S. Military Strength has characterized American hard power as “weak.” The unnamed source also said that Heritage’s scoring is “silly and dangerous,” in part because it is “based on the outdated requirement that the military be able to fight two wars simultaneously,” a metric changed by the Obama administration and maintained by both the Trump and Biden teams.

Perhaps one can forgive someone in the Pentagon for taking offense when an outsider says their baby is ugly but, if it is true, prideful umbrage does not overrule the fact of the matter. When it comes to assessing our military, it’s size, readiness, and capabilities that counts. The Pentagon should care far more about its ability to protect U.S. interests than its self-esteem.

Original Post

For years, The Heritage Foundation has produced an annual assessment of the state of the U.S. military looking at capabilities, threats, and potential areas of conflict based on objective and standardized measures. This year’s index was just released. For the first time, Heritage's Index of U.S. Military Strength rates the U.S. military “weak” and finds that it is at significant risk of not being able to meet the demands of a single major regional conflict while attending to various presence and engagement activities. The Wall Street Journal (access required) called the findings troubling and a wake-up call.

The index is edited by Dakota Wood, a distinguished and respected defense analyst. He and his team have raised some serious concerns.

Why is the state of the military declining? Protecting American citizens and our national interests should be the top priority for the federal government. However, the sustained decline of the U.S. military thanks to decades of overuse, neglect, and consistent budget cuts is undermining that goal.

What is the biggest problem? America’s greatest threats, particularly the Chinese Communist Party, continue to build up their militaries and aggressively threaten our interests on the world stage. However, the Swamp continues to jeopardize the safety and security of Americans by cutting the military’s budget and not taking our readiness crisis seriously. Our military is suffering as a result, and the men and women who serve in them put at increasing risk. 

While the Chinese Community Party and other adversaries are devoted to making chilling strides to challenge American leadership on the world stage and surpass our nation militarily, the professional political class is consumed with branding ‘climate change’ as a national security crisis, injecting divisive ideology into the military, and undermining military readiness.

What are the biggest issues that have to be addressed? The Air Force drops from ‘Weak’ to ‘Very Weak.’ Fighter/bomber readiness relies on regular training measured in sortie rates and flying hours.  In 2021, fighter pilots averaged less than 1.5 sorties a week, two-thirds the number required for a pilot to be considered mission ready, a sortie rate was so low that, at best, half of the cadre of the most capable units could execute just “some” of the unit’s wartime mission set. The retirement of aircraft is outpacing the introduction of new aircraft, worsening the service’s capacity problem.

The Navy drops from ‘Marginal’ to ‘Weak.’ The Navy needs 400 ships to meet its mission demands. On its current trajectory, the Navy will shrink to 280 ships by 2037. The technology gap between the Navy and its peer competitors is narrowing in favor of competitors like China. The Navy’s readiness score was downgraded primarily due to its inability to upgrade it maintenance infrastructure and its ability to sustain a workforce to meet its current needs.

How do you fix this? To turn around this preventable decline across the force, policymakers must commit to consistent defense funding that funds the military’s needs, address the growing recruitment crisis, and ensure the force is prepared not just for decades ahead, but to protect American interests today.