Greek Government Survives No Confidence Vote

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis unfazed by political scandal

Jan 29, 2023

The government of Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis prevailed in a no confidence vote yesterday over allegations of wiretapping of political figures by the security services.

Greece's conservative government on Friday survived, as expected, a vote of no confidence put forward by the leftist opposition.

Having just visited Athens, we have some definite views on the state of Greek politics and the implications for bilateral relations with the United States.

What’s the bottom line here? The government led by New Democracy, the conservative center-right party, has proven extremely resilient even in the face of a series of challenges including the wire tapping scandal, higher energy prices, inflation, and the war against Ukraine. Greece is another example of an increasing number stable center-right governments growing across North, Central, and Southern Europe.

So what does this mean for the U.S.? From a security perspective, a stable and resilient Greek government led by New Democracy has been good for the U.S. A few months ago, the Greek parliament ratified an updated Greece-U.S. security agreement which gave the U.S. additional access to bases in Greece including the strategically vital Alexandroupolis port, the most important port in the region. In recent years, Greece has significantly increased its commitment to burden-sharing, spending 3.7% of GDP on defense (more than the NATO standard) and 40% of its defense budget (double the NATO target) on modernization. The present government is pro-NATO, supportive of Ukraine, and increasingly skeptical of Chinese investments. Greece, for example, developed a 5G network without the participation of the Chinese company Huawei.

Greece is also a natural partner for the U.S. in "friend shoring," diversify supply chains , foreign direct investment, and private sector partnerships diminishing dependence on China.

The Greek government’s energy policies are also important as the country is an significant energy hub for the south-north flow of energy to Europe from the U.S., North Africa, the Middle East, and Azerbaijan. The Greek government also has strong and constructive relations in the Middle East with Israel, the Gulf Countries, and Egypt.

Greece's main security concerns are the bi-lateral relationship with Turkey (which is at a historic low), stability in the Balkans, and stability and security in the wider Mediterranean region. The European Union (EU), lacking a strong common foreign and security policy, has been less successful in addressing these concerns. Greece looks primarily to NATO and bilateral relationships to address these issues. Greece does not have the capacity to address them independently. In particular, Greece looks to the U.S. because of Athens' willingness to commit to burden-sharing and that the U.S. and Greece largely share common security interests.

What's Next? The next national elections will likely be in April. The first round is unlikely to produce a sufficient majority for any party to form a government. The second round of elections will likely be in May. The most likely scenario is that New Democracy might have sufficient numbers to form a government without a coalition partner. The next likely scenario is a coalition with the socialists. The least likely scenario is a coalition with the far-right party.

The U.S. expectation should be that it has a solid ally in Southern Europe and should partner more with Greece in ensuring the security and stability of the Mediterranean region. Greece and the U.S. share an interest in a stable Balkans, outreach to the Caucuses and Central Asia, and a stable North Africa. As Southern Europe becomes a major energy hub for all of Europe, drawing oil and gas from from the Caucuses, Central Asia, the Aegean, North Africa, the Middle East and LNG from the U.S., the stability and security of the region will become a vital strategic interest for energy security in the transatlantic community, ensuring diversity of supply and reliable, affordable, and abundant energy from the near to mid-term. Although Greece generally supports EU climate policy, the government is realistic in recognizing that gas and oil will be a significant part of the energy mix for decades to come. For a modicum of force presence and diplomatic engagement the U.S. gains significant benefit from security cooperation with Greece.

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