Forget the Spy Balloon-Meet China's Monster Missile Force

There is way more to the China spy balloon story than the balloon. Updated 2/9/2023

Feb 7, 2023

Update

Read our thoughts on on the implications for homeland security.

Original Post

The U.S. is openly reporting China surpassed U.S. in ICBM launchers. The news that China has surpassed the U.S. in its number of ICBM launchers comes as no surprise as China engages in a rapid nuclear buildup as part of its strategy to achieve regional if not global hegemony.

We asked our nuclear weapons expert P.J. Geller to give us an assessment.

Why is this news important? This announcement means that China must have already completed construction of hundreds of new missile silos that were initially detected by public imagery less than two years ago.

How does this link to the spy balloon story? China increased effort to surveil the U.S. nuclear response infrastructure, which was probably the mission of the recent Chinese spy balloon that traversed the U.S., is likely part of China’s effort to map and target the U.S. ballistic missiles and command and control architecture.

So, what are the implications of this for the U.S.? As China moves to nuclear parity, we will enter a new era of strategic competition. The value of extended deterrence will be challenged. The efficacy of arms control agreements to stem the expansion of nuclear arsenals will virtually disappear. The balance of conventional and strategic forces will be more important. A mix of a sufficient nuclear arsenal paired with robust missile defense and adequate conventional deterrence will be required for maximum stability in strategic competition.

What’s Next? If China has moved this quickly in the last few years, the U.S. should prepare for an even greater expansion in the years to come. Indeed, this news plus knowledge of China’s spy balloon recently hovering over U.S. ICBM bases should signal China’s intent to race to nuclear parity with the U.S. if not superiority. It’s well past time the U.S. make plans to adjust its nuclear forces to account for the growing Chinese nuclear threat. At minimum this means accelerating development of the nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N) but will also need to entail increasing the overall size of the U.S. arsenal plus improving our ability to hedge against a quickly evolving threat environment. This will require making serious and politically contentious decisions over future defense investments to ensure the U.S. maintains a favorable military balance in a fiscally responsible manner.

War and More

Forget the Spy Balloon-Meet China's Monster Missile Force

There is way more to the China spy balloon story than the balloon. Updated 2/9/2023

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