Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu will once again be heading the government of Israel
Benjamin Netanyahu has won the fifth Israeli election in as many years and is form a new government. Bottom Line: Netanyahu can be expected to reprise his signature policies of strong national security and robust economic growth for Israel, and while his relationship with the Biden administration will likely be frosty, he will enjoy unusual U.S. domestic political popularity for a foreign leader, particularly with Republicans. For what this all means, we asked a top expert, former National Security Council staffer Victoria Coates.
Who is this guy? Already Israel’s longest-tenured Prime Minister, Netanyahu previously served 1996-99 and 2009-21. He has also been Israel’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Finance, and Communications (among other portfolios), Permanent Representative to the United Nations, and has been Chairman of the conservative Likud Party since 2005. While maintaining the U.S.-Israel alliance has been a priority for Netanyahu over the course of his political career, he has (like Israel itself) become increasingly polarizing in the United States, with support concentrated among conservatives, particularly Evangelical Christians. Netanyahu had a fractious relationship with President Obama, primarily because of disagreements over the Iran nuclear deal, but also over the Palestinian issue. Relations with President Trump were among the warmest in U.S.-Israeli history, with the move of the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, the recognition of the Golan Heights as sovereign Israeli territory, and the signing of the Abraham Peace Accords between Israel, UAE, Bahrain and Morocco as highlights of unprecedented and very fruitful cooperation.
How will his election impact U.S.-Israel elections? His previous government fell in June, 2021 due to the formation of an opposition alliance between Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid that claimed the majority in the Knesset, so Netanyahu has not had much overlap with President Biden, but it is safe to say the Biden administration’s determination to return to the Iran nuclear deal will make things increasingly difficult. With an apparently larger-than-anticipated majority of 65 Knesset seats and potential Republican majorities in Congress, however, Netanyahu may not feel the normal constraints to please the U.S. administration.
The Biden administration is already leaking to the press that they may “refuse to engage with” (i.e. ostracize) one of the leaders of a far-right political block who will almost certainly be a senior minister in the new government, Itamar Ben-Gvir, which may be a trial balloon for other efforts to isolate Netanyahu. Regardless of one’s personal views on Ben-Gvir, this is a shameful (and unique) action to take against an Israeli official when the administration is all too eager to engage with sanctioned and designated Iranian and Russian officials in Vienna, and should be strongly condemned.
What’s Next? Iran. Netanyahu will immediately become the face of opposition to the Iranian regime, and may well be invited by the next Congress to speak against a new deal, as he was in 2015. He may also feel compelled to take kinetic action against Iran if he feels Israel’s security is threatened by Iran’s nuclear program and the United States is not engaged.
What about China? Over the course of the Trump administration, Netanyahu demonstrated an increasing understanding of the threat to Israel from the PRC on everything from Haifa Port to 5G. But this is not a universal view in Israel so needs to be consistently reinforced from the U.S.
What about the Abraham Accords? While Arab leaders may or may not like Netanyahu, he is a know quantity with demonstrated political clout to get deals done, so progress is possible and should be strongly encouraged, especially if there is further trouble with Iran.
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